ОЦЕНКА РИСКОВ С ПОМОЩЬЮ МОДЕЛИ РАСПОЗНАВАНИЯ ОБРАЗОВ ДЛЯ НЕУСТОЙЧИВЫХ МАССИВОВ ПОРОД НА КРУТЫХ СКЛОНАХ Risk Assessment of Unstable Rock Masses on High-steep Slopes: an Attribute Recognition Model

Yufan Tao, Yiguo Xue, Qian Zhang, Weimin Yang, Bin Li, Lewen Zhang, Chuanqi Qu, Kai Zhang

Аннотация


Актуальность оценки рисков камнепадов и оползней для высокогорных склонов все более возрастает, в том числе, в связи с увеличением числа крупномасштабных горных гидроэлектростанций. Для эффективного управления риском обрушения неустойчивых массивов горных пород
на крутых склонах создана модель распознавания признаков с использованием атрибутивной математической теории. В качестве индексов ("атрибутов") для оценки риска рассматриваются: литология, геологическая структура, уклон и форма склона, количество осадков, растительность и
деятельность человека с критериями градации каждого индекса. Веса оценочных индексов (значимость для возможной потери устойчивости) определяются с помощью матрицы суждений, построенной (частично экспертно, частично по эмпирическим формулам) с использованием процесса аналитической иерархии. Идентификация и классификация оценки риска неустойчивого горного массива проводятся с использованием доверительного критерия. Разработанная модель используется для оценки "фатальности" реального горного массива на высоком крутом склоне, расположенного в городе Янцзяо (Китай). На основе полученных результатов предложен метод мониторинга, обеспечивающий эффективный подход к оценке рисков для нестабильных массивов горных пород.

Полный текст статьи публикуется в английской версии журнала "Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering" vol. 58, No.2.


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