МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ РИСКА ОБРУШЕНИЯ ТОННЕЛЯ МЕТРОПОЛИТЕНА НА ОСНОВЕ ГЕОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГНОЗА С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ МЕТОДА ДЕЛЬФИ Prediction Model for Subway Tunnel Collapse Risk Based on Delphi-Ideal Point Method and Geological Forecast

Yiguo Xue, Zhiqiang Li, Daohong Qiu, Weimin Yang, Lewen Zhang, Yufan Tao, Kai Zhang

Аннотация


Предлагается методика прогноза риска разрушения тоннеля метрополитена, основанная на экспертных оценках влияния основных геологических факторов и параметров тоннеля на величину, характеризующую этот риск. Каждому учитываемому фактору присваивается экспертное критериальное значение с использованием метода Дельфи (опрос независимых экспертов и комплексирование их оценок), а затем с использованием одного из методов принятия решений (метод идеальной точки) оценивается обобщенный риск аварии. Эффективность методики иллюстрируется на примере оценки риска разрушения различных секций конкретного тоннеля.

Полный текст статьи опубликован в английской версии журнала
"Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering".


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